• Today, I will be presenting my analysis on how the Houston Rockets’ shot selection has transformed over the past two decades
• I will be using R data visualization techniques to demonstrate the evolution of the Houston Rockets’ shot selection

• 2003-04 Season:
  • Mid-range shots are prevalent
  • Shots in the paint are distributed fairly even
  • Three-pointers are less common and shot closer to the arc
• 2012-13 Season:
  • Fewer mid-range shots taken
  • Shots in and around the paint move closer to the rim
  • Increased reliance on three-pointers
• 2022-23 Season:
  • Mid-range shots are sparsely taken
  • Increased shots in the paint AND near the rim
  • Three-pointers are very common and shot further from the arc

I employed two distinct visualization techniques to display the Houston Rockets’ shot selection trends across different seasons. On the left, we have a shot chart for an entire season illustrating made shots (green circles) and missed shots (red X’s). Meanwhile, the right side showcases a heat map, with hexagons indicating shot frequency in a section of the court – lighter shades for fewer attempts and darker shades for more.

In the 2003-04 season, the Rockets leaned heavily on mid-range jump shots, with a considerable portion of their attempts occuring in this zone. Despite this reliance, their approach to scoring remained balanced, evident from the even color distribution of the heat map in the paint and beyond the arc. Three-pointers were attempted less back then, and when they did occur, they tended to be closer to the three-point arc, as the shot chart shows. This makes sense- players were likely less proficient three-point shooters in this era, so taking deep three-pointers would be inefficient.

A noticeable shift occurred in shot selection during the 2012-13 season. The frequency of mid-range shots dwindled significantly, replaced by an uptick in three-point attempts and shots around the rim. This transformation reflects the evolving emphasis on high-percentage scoring opportunities in the NBA, influenced by the success of players like Stephen Curry, and the increased use of data analytics to determine the most efficient shot types. This season set the stage for a league characterized by hyper-optimized offenses.

Fast forward to the 2022-23 season, and we observe the prevailing offensive strategy of the modern NBA. The Rockets largely abandoned mid-range shots, opting instead for three-pointers and shots near the rim and in the paint. This indicates a team that has gone all-in on maximum-efficiency shots. Notably, three-point attempts extended further from the arc, suggesting an evolution in player proficiency in deep-range shooting to the point where these shots are worth taking. The darkness of the paint and three-point line in the heat map reinforces these observations, highlighting the concentrated offensive focus on these areas.

The NBA defines clutch time as “the final five minutes of the fourth quarter or overtime when the score is within five points”. I will be exploring if the shot selection in clutch time has changed in the past two decades for the Houston Rockets.

• 2003-04 season: clutch-time shots were evenly distributed among three-pointers, mid-range attempts, and shots taken in the paint.
• 2012-13 season: there was a noticeable shift towards a higher frequency of clutch-time shots taken in proximity to the paint and beyond the three-point line.
• 2022-23 season: mid-range clutch-time shots are virtually non-existent
• In clutch time, the Rockets exhibit a strategic preference for either three-pointers or high-percentage shots near the basket.